For much of this campaign year, Larry Hogan did his best to avoid answering whether he would support Donald Trump for president. He frequently expressed annoyance at reporters who asked what was surely an incredibly obvious question. Finally, in June, he grudgingly acknowledged that he would not be voting for either Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Hogan’s belated answer implied a false equivalency between the two candidates, a notion dispelled yet again this week when 50 former Republican national security officials warned that Trump would be the most reckless president ever elected. The suggestion that Hogan was focused entirely on state matters was also belied by his earlier support for New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.
Still, since his declaration of neutrality, Hogan has largely managed to keep his distance from Trump and the political fallout being created by his candidacy. For a multitude of reasons, Hogan has retained his high favorable rating in public opinion polls, has cultivated his image as a moderate, non-ideological Republican and has avoided major political errors.
With a relatively modest legislative agenda, Hogan has limited his confrontations with the Democratic General Assembly. However, his main initiatives have been either defeated or substantially rewritten. His vetoes have been consistently overridden. Hogan’s greatest success has come in the area where Maryland governors have the greatest authority, the State budget.
Legislators leaders have used a variety of methods to try to negotiate with him on spending priorities. Efforts at direct negotiations have been generally ignored by the Governor. A second approach, employed in each of the first two year of his administration, has been to “wall off” funds in the budget, specifying that they can be used only for the purposes designated by the legislature’s two budget committees or not at all. Hogan keeps selecting Option B.
Last week, when he announced that he would not be spending $80 million earmarked by the General Assembly for education and “safe streets” projects, Hogan was roundly criticized by legislator leaders as well as by education groups. Their response was totally to be expected and not particularly noteworthy.
Hogan’s reaction to the complaints, on the other hand, looked like it came straight out of Donald Trump’s playbook. His Facebook post accused them of being “union thugs”.
In the same week that he spoke at the Urban League conference in Baltimore, an event Donald Trump declined to attend, Hogan was definitely sending mixed messages about what kind of Republican he is: a conciliatory moderate or a confrontational partisan.
How do you explain the “union thug” comment in a way that makes any sense at all? The most benign explanation I could think of–and one that is totally implausible–is that Hogan thinks the word “thug” means critic or opponent. Once you reject that interpretation, the alternatives are all less appealing.
Hogan took grief from some conservative Maryland Republicans for not supporting Trump. Was the “thug” line a kind of dog whistle to let them know his heart is really with them? If you believe that much of political rhetoric is code and signaling, that explanation is possible although perhaps a bit too subtle.
In the same vein, you might argue that Hogan was merely trying to shore up his own political base by taking a cheap but popular shot at public unions, widely seen by the Right as the source of many evils. That interpretation suggests a political calculation looking toward the 2018 Election and has some logic to it.
Since we are most definitely in the area of speculation, let me offer yet a different assessment. This is far from the first time that Larry Hogan has taken what seem to be gratuitous shots at a political opponent for no really good reason. He could have turned down the Red Line in Baltimore without having called the planning process a “boondoggle.” He could have put his own stamp on the State school construction program without having personally attacked the outgoing director. He could have vetoed what he considered excessive spending without having picked out a pet project of Speaker Mike Busch, all the while knowing his veto was going to be overridden.
Hogan, a bit like the guy he won’t endorse, has a thin skin and a quick temper. He can be politically astute and calculating at one moment and petulant the next. Despite years in and around politics, albeit not elected office, he sometimes gives the impression that he feels entitled to unquestioned support without any opposition, to praise without questions, to applause without boos. Hogan may get all of that from Comptroller Peter Franchot, but he’s not likely to get it from anyone else.